Follow-Up Update August 13, 2026 โ€ข Market Close

Post-Earnings Price Action

50-Day SMA Fails โ€” 100-Day SMA Comes Into Focus

Cisco delivered strong earnings and guidance, but the stock still sold off sharply. CSCO closed Thursday at $113.47, failing to hold the daily 50-SMA that was highlighted as the key technical test in the original Spotlight.

Aug. 13 Close$113.47Sharp post-earnings selloff
50-Day SMAFailedFormer support now becomes a retest area
Upside Test50-SMAWatch for reclaim or rejection
Next Support~$106.37Daily 100-SMA area

Strong numbers, weak reaction

Cisco reported roughly $17.25 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, up about 18% year over year. Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $72.2 billionโ€“$73.4 billion, above Wall Street expectations cited in post-earnings coverage.

CEO Chuck Robbins pushed back on the idea that the outlook was too conservative, noting that analysts had been looking for much slower growth than the roughly 15% midpoint implied by Cisco's guidance. At the same time, investors appear to be paying attention to expected gross-margin pressure as a more hardware-heavy mix and component costs weigh on profitability.

Analysts stayed constructive

Several analysts remained positive after the report. Rosenblatt reiterated Buy and raised its price target from $150 to $165. KeyBanc maintained Overweight and raised its target from $130 to $135, while BofA maintained Buy with a $150 target.

Strong fundamentals did not prevent technical damage The earnings report and analyst reaction remained constructive, but price still broke the level that mattered technically. That is why the market's reaction can be just as important as the headline.

What I'm watching now

  • Daily 50-SMA: A bounce could retest the broken moving average from underneath. A strong reclaim would improve the short-term picture; rejection could confirm it as resistance.
  • Daily 100-SMA near $106.37: If weakness continues, this becomes the next major support area to watch.
  • $113.47 close: The stock is now trading between the failed 50-SMA and the next major moving-average support zone.
  • Market reaction: Continued selling despite strong guidance would keep the technical picture under pressure.
Dagger Trading Take The original Spotlight identified the daily 50-SMA as the key support test. That test failed, so the roadmap changes.

The first upside question is whether CSCO can reclaim the broken 50-SMA. If it cannot and selling resumes, the daily 100-SMA near $106.37 becomes increasingly important.

Original Spotlight โ€” August 12, 2026

Published after earnings

30-SECOND SUMMARY

What matters most

  • Cisco delivered a strong Q4 FY2026 beat, with adjusted EPS of $1.22 and revenue of approximately $17.25 billion.
  • AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers reached $4 billion in Q4 and $9.3 billion for FY2026.
  • Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $72.2Bโ€“$73.4B came in above Wall Street expectations.
  • Despite the strong report, CSCO initially jumped after hours and then reversed sharply lower.
  • The chart is now testing an important area around the daily 50-day SMA.
  • Dagger Trading Take: Strong fundamentals do not automatically mean strong price action. Let the 50-day SMA test help confirm the next move.
Q4 Revenue$17.25BAbove ~$16.82B consensus
Adjusted EPS$1.22Above ~$1.17 consensus
Q4 AI Orders$4.0BHyperscaler infrastructure
FY26 AI Orders$9.3BStrong AI networking demand

The earnings story

Cisco entered earnings with high expectations after a powerful 2026 run. The company still cleared the bar. Fourth-quarter revenue rose to approximately $17.25 billion, while adjusted earnings reached $1.22 per share.

The bigger story continues to be AI infrastructure. Cisco reported $4 billion in Q4 AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers, bringing fiscal-year AI orders to $9.3 billion.

Guidance stayed strong

Cisco expects fiscal 2027 revenue of $72.2 billion to $73.4 billion. The company also expects approximately $7.5 billion in fiscal 2027 AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers alone.

The fundamental takeaway
Cisco did not simply beat the quarter. The company also reinforced the idea that AI-driven networking demand can remain an important growth engine into fiscal 2027.

So why did the stock sell off?

The reaction is what makes this Spotlight interesting. CSCO initially pushed higher after the report before reversing sharply in extended trading.

That does not make the earnings report weak. It shows how much optimism was already reflected in the stock. After a strong run, a company can beat expectations and still sell off if investors were positioned for something even better.

The trading lesson
A strong earnings headline is not a buy signal by itself. Expectations, positioning, valuation and the chart still matter.

The technical setup

CSCO's post-earnings reversal puts the focus on the daily 50-day simple moving average, currently around $118.01. That area can help show whether buyers are willing to defend the broader uptrend or whether the earnings reversal has more room to develop.

50-Day SMA HoldsBuyers defending this area would keep the larger bullish structure healthier.
Reclaim the SelloffA move back through the post-earnings weakness would improve the short-term picture.
50-Day SMA FailsA decisive loss of support could open the door to a deeper retracement.

Bull case

  • The 50-day SMA acts as strong support.
  • Buyers absorb the earnings reversal and begin reclaiming lost ground.
  • AI infrastructure orders and revenue continue accelerating.
  • Strong fiscal 2027 guidance keeps the longer-term growth story intact.

Bear / caution case

  • The 50-day SMA fails to hold after earnings.
  • The initial after-hours spike becomes a clear failed breakout.
  • High expectations and valuation continue to outweigh otherwise strong results.
  • The stock needs more time or a deeper reset before buyers regain control.