The Week in One Thought
AI kept winning the tug-of-war, but yields never stopped being a warning sign.
Stocks finished a volatile week higher as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence helped offset another surge in Treasury yields and continued pressure from elevated oil prices. The Nasdaq led the week, but the bond market made sure traders never got too comfortable.
The Market: Tech Led, but the Macro Pressure Stayed
Friday gave the week a strong finish. The S&P 500 gained 0.51%, the Nasdaq rose 0.48% and the Dow climbed 0.93%. For the full week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Nasdaq rose about 2% and the Dow finished modestly higher.
The Big Story
AI strength kept pulling against higher rates and oil.
AI-related stocks remained one of the market's strongest sources of momentum. The Nasdaq reached a record closing high Tuesday, and Friday's rally was again helped by technology names. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield reached a fresh 19-year high during Friday's session and Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel.
Treasury Yields Stayed Impossible to Ignore
The bond market remained one of the biggest risks hanging over equities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached a fresh 19-year high and was around 5.20% late Friday. Higher long-term yields can raise borrowing costs and put pressure on stock valuations, especially in growth-oriented parts of the market.
Economic Data: Business Spending Stayed Strong
Friday's data showed that core capital-goods orders rose 1.6% in August, much stronger than economists expected, while overall durable-goods orders were unchanged. The University of Michigan's final September consumer-sentiment reading fell to 48.1, a four-month low, while one-year inflation expectations increased to 4.6%.
Costco Beat Expectations
Costco reported quarterly revenue of $95.72 billion, above the $94.86 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted earnings were $6.60 per share versus $6.53 expected, while comparable sales excluding gas and foreign-exchange effects rose 6.7%. The shares were relatively quiet after the report, another reminder that a strong earnings report does not always guarantee a big stock reaction.
Dagger Trading Spotlights This Week
Two Dagger Trading Spotlights stood out this week. META brought a powerful AI-driven move directly into major resistance, while SPCX returned to an important support area as share supply and the September 24 unlock moved back into focus.
META: Muse Momentum Runs Into Major Resistance
META rallied 4.5% Thursday and closed at $777.59 on unusually heavy volume as enthusiasm around Muse and Meta's expanding AI ecosystem accelerated. The move carried the stock directly into the $778.75–$780.66 resistance area mapped in the new Spotlight. META then pulled back Friday, reinforcing why confirmation at resistance matters even when momentum is strong.
SPCX: Support Takes Center Stage
SPCX traded as high as $158.13 early in the week before Wednesday's 4.11% decline pushed the stock back toward support. The September 23 Spotlight update shifted the focus to the $148.72 area, with $147.53, $145.85 and $144.28 below if weakness continued. The September 24 share unlock added another potential source of volatility.
Read the Updated SPCX Spotlight →
What the Week Taught Us
This week was a good example of why traders cannot focus on only one narrative. AI enthusiasm was strong enough to lift the major indexes, yet Treasury yields and oil remained serious macro pressures. Individual stocks could still produce powerful moves, but the reaction at support and resistance continued to matter more than simply chasing the headline.
Watch the levels. Watch the reaction. Momentum is key.
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Going Into Next Week
AI momentum is strong. Rates and oil still have a vote.
The market enters next week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coming off weekly gains, but long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs and oil is still elevated. The key question is whether AI-driven strength can keep carrying the market if those macro pressures stay in place.
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- Reuters — September 25 market close and weekly recap
- Reuters — Durable goods, capital spending and consumer sentiment, September 25
- Reuters — Costco earnings, September 24
Stock-specific price levels in the META and SPCX sections are based on Dagger Trading's chart analysis and the corresponding Spotlight coverage published during the week.
Content is educational and informational only and is not financial advice.