NVDA: Strong Earnings Put $221 in Focus

What happened?

Nvidia delivered another strong quarter and followed it with guidance that kept the AI growth story alive. Revenue more than doubled from a year earlier, earnings beat expectations, and the company guided fiscal Q3 revenue above Wall Street estimates.

The bigger surprise came on the earnings call. CFO Colette Kress said Nvidia expects revenue to grow around 70% in fiscal 2028. That was well above the roughly 45% growth analysts had been expecting. Management said supply visibility gave the company enough confidence to look that far ahead.

Demand is still running into supply limits. Nvidia pointed to continued growth from AI labs, expanding inference workloads and the Vera Rubin platform as major drivers.

The part Wall Street didn't love

The report wasn't perfect. Nvidia expects adjusted gross margin around 74% in Q3, then sees margins bottoming around 71% to 72% in Q4 before stabilizing around 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028.

Management blamed much of the pressure on rising memory costs and a tight supply environment. Nvidia also assumes no Data Center revenue from China next quarter, while competition from custom chips remains another issue investors are watching.

Those risks matter because expectations around Nvidia are already extremely high. At this point, simply beating earnings may not be enough. The market wants continued growth, strong guidance and proof that the broader AI buildout can keep supporting demand.

Why the earnings reaction matters

NVDA had been under pressure going into earnings, including a seven session losing streak that ended Tuesday. When the report hit, shares initially sold off and tested the $207 to $208 area.

That area stands out because the daily 50 SMA is near $207.75 and the daily 100 SMA is near $207.68. They are almost sitting on top of each other. Buyers stepped in around that support cluster and NVDA reversed sharply higher during the earnings call.

That bounce was encouraging, but now the stock has another test in front of it.

Key levels to watch

What would improve the chart?

I want to see NVDA get above $221 and prove it can stay there. A quick spike through resistance can fail just as fast. A break, pullback and hold would tell me buyers are actually accepting the higher price.

If that happens and momentum stays strong, the $225 to $226 area becomes the next upside zone I'm watching.

What would concern me?

A rejection at $221 would not automatically make the chart bearish, but it would keep the stock stuck below an important resistance area. If NVDA then loses $214 to $215, I'd start watching for a deeper pullback.

The bigger concern would be a decisive loss of $207 to $208. That would mean the support cluster that buyers defended during earnings failed to hold.