Latest Update • September 18, 2026
ORCL rebounds from major support, but the $149–$151 area is now the key test
Oracle finished Friday at $147.61, down 1.98% on the session, after a volatile week that saw shares recover sharply from the recent lows. The biggest technical development is that the $140.86 area from the earlier roadmap ultimately held as major support and helped launch the rebound.
That recovery has now run into a much heavier area overhead. Several technical levels and recent price reactions cluster between roughly $149 and $151, making that the first important resistance zone ORCL needs to clear before the rebound can extend.
What happened?
After breaking below $140.86 earlier in the week, ORCL quickly recovered and pushed back above the low-$140s. The rebound reached the low-$150s, but buyers were unable to establish support there. Friday's premarket push reached approximately $152.21 before the stock pulled back, and ORCL closed beneath the main $149–$151 resistance area.
On the downside, the latest price action has also created a clearer support structure. The first important area sits around $144.07–$144.88. If that fails, there is an intermediate support area in the low $142s before the larger $140.86 support comes back into focus.
Latest News
Financing concerns around Oracle's AI infrastructure buildout remain in focus. The Financial Times reported Friday that roughly $18 billion of loans tied to Project Jupiter, a planned New Mexico data-center project connected to Oracle's AI infrastructure expansion, have come under pressure. The project has also faced permitting, environmental and local-opposition issues.
The broader story remains a balancing act for investors: Oracle continues to pursue substantial cloud and AI demand, but the amount of capital and financing required to build the infrastructure behind that growth remains an important risk to watch.
Key Levels I'm Watching
The roadmap from here
For the upside, the first job is simple: ORCL needs to work through $149.07–$150.92. If buyers can break that zone and turn it into support, $152.21 becomes the next test. A clean move through there opens the door to $156.73–$157.50, with the much larger $169.07–$170.70 area remaining the longer-range resistance target.
On the downside, $144.07–$144.88 is the first support zone to watch. If it fails, the low $142s are an intermediate area where buyers could respond before $140.86 becomes the major support test again.
The important change since the September 15 update is that ORCL did not simply continue lower. The stock recovered from the major support area and produced a meaningful rebound, but that rebound has now reached a crowded resistance zone.
That makes $149.07–$150.92 the key area for the next move. Clear it and hold above it, and the roadmap shifts toward $152.21 and then the mid-$150s. Reject there again, and $144.07–$144.88 becomes the first area to watch below.
Momentum is key. Let price confirm the next move.
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- September 18, 2026 Financial Times reporting on financing pressure, permitting issues and local opposition surrounding Project Jupiter in New Mexico.
- Oracle FY2026 company results for broader cloud demand and contracted-backlog context.
- September 18, 2026 price action and technical levels are based on Dagger Trading's Thinkorswim and TradingView chart analysis supplied during the session.
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Latest Update • September 15, 2026
ORCL breaks deeper support as the daily 50 SMA comes into focus
Oracle extended its decline to a fifth consecutive session Tuesday, even as several AI-linked chip stocks rebounded. More importantly for the technical roadmap, ORCL broke below the $140.86 support level highlighted in the September 11 update and moved beneath its 50 SMA (daily), currently around $140.70.
The 50 SMA is a moving level, so the exact value will change from day to day. For now, the area around $140.70 is the immediate decision point: reclaiming and holding above it would be the first sign of stabilization, while continued trading below it keeps the deeper downside roadmap in focus.
What happened?
The September 11 roadmap identified $140.86 as major deeper support, sitting almost directly beside the daily 50 SMA, which was around $140.68 at the time. ORCL has now reached that area and broken the fixed $140.86 level. That shifts attention from the old support to whether the stock can reclaim the nearby 50-day moving average.
Latest News
AI-spending concerns remain part of the pressure. MarketWatch reported that ORCL fell for a fifth straight session while some AI-linked chip stocks rebounded. Investors are weighing whether calls for a slower pace of frontier AI development, along with potential regulation, could eventually lead to more measured infrastructure spending. Oracle remains heavily exposed to that buildout, ending its August quarter with $664 billion in remaining performance obligations, while FactSet data cited by MarketWatch showed $88 billion of net debt.
Oracle is still investing for AI growth. The company announced investments tied to more than 1.7 gigawatts of carbon-free electricity across 10 Texas wind projects, supporting the grid that powers its Abilene AI infrastructure. Separately, Mizuho pointed to Oracle's October 28 investor day as the next major scheduled catalyst, when management is expected to discuss long-term financial targets, margins, funding and potential free-cash-flow timing.
Key Levels I'm Watching
The roadmap from here
The first question is whether ORCL can reclaim its daily 50 SMA around $140.70. A sustained recovery above that moving average would be the first sign that buyers are beginning to repair the damage.
If ORCL remains below the 50 SMA, $138.47 is the next meaningful support. A failure there shifts attention to the larger multi-week support at $136.12. If selling becomes substantially deeper, $132.14 is the major lower reference level on the current roadmap.
The September 11 update identified the low-$140s as the major deeper support area to know about if ORCL's nearer levels failed. Price has now reached that area, lost the fixed $140.86 level and moved below the daily 50 SMA.
That makes the 50 SMA around $140.70 the level I'm watching first. Reclaim and hold it, and ORCL has a chance to stabilize. Stay below it, and the roadmap shifts toward $138.47 and then $136.12.
Momentum is key. Let price confirm the next move.
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- September 15, 2026 MarketWatch / Dow Jones reporting on Oracle's fifth consecutive decline, AI-spending concerns, $664 billion RPO and FactSet net-debt data.
- September 15, 2026 Barron's reporting on Oracle's five-session decline, Mizuho's analyst commentary and the October 28 investor day.
- September 15, 2026 Oracle announcement and Benzinga reporting on investments tied to more than 1.7 GW of carbon-free electricity for the Texas grid supporting Oracle's AI infrastructure.
- September 15, 2026 technical levels and the daily 50 SMA are based on Dagger Trading's Thinkorswim chart analysis supplied during the session.
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Previous Update • September 11, 2026
ORCL gives back the earnings surge as support levels fail
Oracle's first full session after earnings turned into a sharp reversal. ORCL traded as high as approximately $166.00 Friday, but selling accelerated after the $159.10–$159.26 decision area from the original Spotlight failed. The stock continued through the lower support levels highlighted Thursday, reached an intraday low around $149.84, and closed at $150.22.
That leaves ORCL almost back where the post-earnings move began after shares had surged as high as $167.68 Thursday evening. The failed push just beneath the 200 SMA (daily) at $167.89 remains an important part of the larger technical picture.
What happened on the chart
The original Spotlight identified $159.10–$159.26 as the immediate decision area, followed by $157.10 and the deeper $155.87–$156.31 area if support failed. All three areas gave way during Friday's selloff.
With ORCL now below those levels, the roadmap shifts lower. An existing technical level at $150.92, which was not included in Thursday's original downside roadmap, is now the first level ORCL needs to reclaim. Friday's close at $150.22 left the stock below it.
Wall Street reaction: strong demand, expensive growth
Friday's analyst reaction remained mixed despite Oracle's strong headline results. Morgan Stanley kept an Equal Weight rating and a $210 price target, acknowledging near-term infrastructure-as-a-service execution while pointing to gross-margin pressure and the need for more evidence on GPU-as-a-service economics and infrastructure-buildout visibility.
UBS took a more constructive view, keeping its Buy rating and raising its price target from $245 to $250. UBS said Oracle's AI-driven growth acceleration is playing out and highlighted strong execution, backlog diversification and GPU renewal pricing gains of more than 20%, while also noting capacity-timing uncertainty.
Stifel maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target from $220 to $200. Separately, analysts highlighted Oracle's $664 billion RPO, more than $30 billion of new AI infrastructure contracts and signs that backlog conversion is beginning to accelerate as capacity comes online. The trade-off remains the cost of that expansion: first-quarter capex reached $28.5 billion, while several analysts pointed to pressure on gross margins from the data-center ramp and infrastructure-heavy revenue mix.
The roadmap from here
The first question is simple: can ORCL reclaim $150.92 and hold it as support? If it can, the stock has a starting point for rebuilding the structure damaged Friday.
If ORCL stays below $150.92 and selling continues, $148.35 is the first downside level to watch. A failure there brings $147.92 into play, followed by $146.50. Much deeper, $140.86 sits beside the 50 SMA (daily) at $140.68, creating a major technical area to know about if the nearer supports fail.
Friday's session was a reminder that strong earnings and strong price action are not the same thing. Oracle delivered impressive AI-cloud growth and a massive backlog, but the stock failed beneath its daily 200 SMA and then lost every near-term support area from the original Spotlight.
For now, $150.92 is the line I'm watching first. Reclaim and hold it, and ORCL has a chance to begin repairing the damage. Stay below it, and the downside roadmap shifts toward $148.35, $147.92 and $146.50.
Let price confirm the next move.
Sources & notes for this update
- September 11, 2026 Morgan Stanley commentary supplied through MT Newswires on Oracle's IaaS execution, gross-margin pressure, fiscal Q2 guidance and GPU-as-a-service economics.
- September 11, 2026 UBS commentary supplied through MT Newswires on Oracle's AI-driven growth, GPU renewal pricing, capex outlook and capacity-timing uncertainty.
- September 11, 2026 Benzinga Newswire reporting on Stifel's Buy rating and price-target reduction, plus analyst commentary on Oracle's $664 billion RPO, AI infrastructure contracts, capex and backlog conversion.
- September 11, 2026 price action, moving averages and technical levels are based on Dagger Trading's Thinkorswim chart analysis supplied after the close.
Oracle • September 10, 2026
Original Spotlight — September 10, 2026
What matters most
- Oracle reported $1.92 adjusted EPS versus $1.74 expected, while revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion, above the roughly $19.14 billion FactSet consensus.
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue grew 62% to $11.6 billion, while remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion, above the roughly $618 billion analysts expected.
- ORCL initially surged from roughly $150.66 to $167.68 after hours, then gave back a large part of the move and traded near the $159 area.
- The post-earnings high stopped just below the 200 SMA (daily) at $167.89, making that one of the most important larger upside tests.
- The immediate technical decision area is $159.10–$159.26. Below it, $157.10 is the next key support level.
- On the upside, the roadmap includes the 100 SMA (daily) at $164.21, $166.31, the 200 SMA at $167.89, and $169.07 if momentum rebuilds.
Oracle beats earnings and raises the bar
Oracle delivered a strong August-quarter report Thursday. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.92 per share, ahead of the $1.74 FactSet consensus, while revenue increased 30% to $19.3 billion, topping expectations of roughly $19.14 billion.
The cloud numbers were a major part of the story. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure generated $11.6 billion in revenue, up 62% from a year earlier. Oracle also reported $664 billion in remaining performance obligations, a measure of contracted business not yet recognized as revenue. Analysts had been looking for roughly $618 billion.
AI demand is growing faster than Oracle can meet it
Oracle said demand for its AI cloud training and inferencing services continues to grow faster than the company can currently satisfy. Management said it booked more than $30 billion of additional AI cloud contracts during the quarter, helping push the revenue backlog higher.
Oracle also said customers used its embedded AI capabilities more than 150 million times during the quarter, with usage growing 42% sequentially. GPU utilization remained extremely high at 97.9% in the quarter.
Guidance moves higher, but so does spending
Oracle adjusted its fiscal 2027 outlook to call for revenue of at least $90 billion and raised its adjusted EPS forecast to $8.10 from $8.05. For the November quarter, the company expects revenue growth of 30% to 34% and adjusted EPS of $1.85 to $1.93.
The counterweight is capital spending. Oracle reported approximately $28.5 billion of capital expenditures for the August quarter, well above the roughly $19.23 billion analysts were modeling. Management said capital spending will not be linear through the year and discussed alternative ways to fund infrastructure growth as the company expands data-center capacity.
The first earnings reaction was huge... and so was the fade
ORCL's initial after-hours reaction was explosive. Shares moved from roughly $150.66 to a high near $167.68, an approximately 11% low-to-high move. But the stock could not hold those gains and later faded back toward the $159 area.
That makes this a more interesting setup than simply calling the earnings reaction bullish. The fundamentals were strong, but price ran directly into an important longer-term technical area and sellers responded.
The 200 SMA stopped the first push
The post-earnings high of approximately $167.68 came within about 21 cents of the 200 SMA (daily) at $167.89. ORCL failed to clear it on the first attempt and then reversed sharply.
Before another test of the 200 SMA becomes relevant, ORCL has several levels to work through. The 100 SMA (daily) at $164.21 is the first major moving-average test above the current price area. A separate technical level near $166.31 sits between the two daily moving averages.
Key levels I'm watching
The roadmap from here
Near term, the most important question is whether ORCL can establish $159.10–$159.26 as support after the post-earnings fade. If that area holds and buyers regain momentum, the larger upside roadmap begins with the 100 SMA at $164.21, followed by $166.31 and the 200 SMA at $167.89. A confirmed break and hold above the 200 SMA would put $169.07 back on the map.
If the ~$159 area breaks and begins acting as resistance, $157.10 becomes the next key lower support. Below that, the $155.87–$156.31 area becomes a deeper reference.
Dagger Trading Take
Strong earnings. Big reaction. Now let the levels decide.
Oracle delivered the earnings growth, cloud momentum and backlog Wall Street wanted to see. But the chart also gave a reminder that a strong headline does not guarantee a straight-line move. ORCL surged nearly to its daily 200 SMA and then gave back a large portion of the rally.
For now, $159.10–$159.26 is the immediate decision area. Hold it and the stock has room to rebuild toward the larger moving-average tests. Lose it and $157.10 becomes the next important downside level.
Momentum matters, but confirmation matters more.
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Shop Dagger Trading →Sources & notes
- Oracle fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release and September 10, 2026 earnings-call reporting supplied through Thinkorswim live news.
- September 10, 2026 MarketWatch / Dow Jones reporting on Oracle earnings, guidance, RPO, OCI growth and capital expenditures.
- Post-earnings price action, moving averages and technical levels are based on Dagger Trading's Thinkorswim chart analysis supplied after the close.
- Technical levels are reference areas, not predictions. Price can move through any level, especially during volatile post-earnings trading.