Six Days After the First Lockup Tranche
SPCX Extends Its Run and Reclaims the $135 IPO Price
SPCX has continued to build on the strength that first appeared during the August 6 lockup expiration. On that day, buyers stepped in around $109.20 despite approximately 911.5 million shares becoming eligible to trade.
Six days later, that support test has received meaningful follow-through. SPCX has rallied toward the $150 area, reclaiming its $135 IPO price along the way. From the $109.20 lockup-day support area to roughly $150, the move represents a gain of about 37%.
Why the move matters
The August 6 session was encouraging, but one green day was not enough to confirm that buyers had taken control. The continued advance since then gives that initial reaction considerably more weight.
The reclaim of the $135 IPO price is also important. That level had been a major psychological reference throughout the post-IPO selloff. Holding above it on future pullbacks would strengthen the technical picture further.
What I'm watching now
- $150 area: Can SPCX push through and hold above this psychological level, or does the fast run begin to cool?
- $135 IPO price: On a meaningful pullback, this becomes an important area to watch for potential support.
- Momentum: The move since August 6 has been strong, with SPCX continuing higher while consolidating along the way. Momentum remains bullish, but after a roughly 37% run from the $109.20 support area, chasing at higher levels carries more risk.
- Around August 20: Another scheduled lockup tranche of roughly 455.8 million shares may become eligible to trade, creating another test of demand and supply.
That does not mean the stock can only go higher. The move has been fast, and another lockup tranche remains ahead. Rather than chasing an extended move, the next useful information may come from how SPCX behaves during its first meaningful pullback or consolidation.
๐ก๏ธ Wait for Confirmation, Not Assumption.
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First Lockup Expiration
SPCX Holds Key Support After First Major Lockup Expiration
Today marked SPCX's first major lockup expiration, allowing approximately 911 million shares held by early investors and employees to become eligible for sale.
While many expected heavy selling pressure, SPCX showed resilience. After early weakness, buyers stepped in around $109.20 and pushed the stock higher into the close. SPCX finished the session up $6.65, suggesting the market absorbed much of the anticipated supply.
Remember, eligible to sell does not mean those shares were actually sold.
Notable Developments
- Approximately 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade.
- ARK Invest recently added to its SPCX position ahead of the lockup expiration.
- Elon Musk's shares remain locked until June 2027 and were not part of today's unlock.
- Buyers defended the $109.20 area throughout the session.
- Hold $109.20 โ Support remains intact.
- Break above $119.08 โ Technical picture improves.
- Lose $109.20 โ Downside risk increases.
Key Dates Ahead
- Around August 20, 2026: Another scheduled lockup tranche of roughly 455.8 million shares may become eligible to trade.
- Next earnings report: Worth watching once SpaceX announces the official date.
๐ก๏ธ Wait for Confirmation, Not Assumption.
Market Reaction
Buyers Step In, but the Lockup Still Looms
SPCX opened sharply lower following Tuesday's earnings report, extending the after-hours selloff before recovering part of the early decline by midday. The rebound shows that buyers are willing to step in, but the stock remains volatile and below its $135 IPO price.
Retail traders were active buyers during the morning weakness. Reuters reported approximately $22.7 million in net retail purchases during the first hour, the third-highest first-hour total since the IPO. That buying helped stabilize the stock after its early drop, but it does not remove the near-term uncertainty.
What the market is debating
- Whether strong Starlink and AI growth can justify aggressive capital spending.
- How quickly AI investment can translate into sustainable profitability.
- Whether retail and institutional demand can absorb additional lockup-related supply.
- Whether the morning rebound develops into a durable higher low or remains a temporary bounce.
๐ก๏ธ Wait for Confirmation, Not Assumption.
Post-Earnings Analysis
Strong Results, Heavy AI Spending, and a Sharp After-Hours Reversal
SpaceX beat Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue, but the stock reversed lower after investors focused on elevated AI capital spending and the August 6 lockup expiration.
What stood out
Why the stock sold off despite the beat
SpaceX disclosed approximately $15.8 billion in AI-related capital expenditures, above published expectations near $13.1 billion. The higher spending reinforced concerns about how quickly AI investment will translate into sustainable profits.
The stock closed the regular session at $125.33, up 9.43%, briefly moved higher after the release, and then reversed to finish after-hours trading at approximately $115.98, down 7.46% from the regular close.
Management outlook
Elon Musk said SpaceX could reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by year-end and moved forward his long-term $1 trillion revenue outlook to as early as 2029. Those targets reinforce the long-term growth story, but they also raise the execution bar.
What comes next
- How SPCX trades during the first regular session after earnings.
- Whether buyers defend the $115โ$116 after-hours area.
- Whether the stock can reclaim the $125 regular-session close.
- How the market absorbs the August 6 lockup expiration.
- Whether selling pressure fades or accelerates as additional shares become eligible.
Updated Dagger Trading Take
The earnings beat strengthened the business story, but not yet the chart
SpaceX delivered strong growth and better-than-expected results, but the after-hours reversal shows that expectations, capital spending, valuation, and supply still matter.
Long term, Starlink growth, launch leadership, AI revenue, and the company's financial resources remain compelling. Short term, buyers still need to prove they can absorb selling pressure after earnings and through the lockup.
Wait for confirmation, not assumption.
Original Spotlight โ August 4, 2026
Published before earnings
30-SECOND SUMMARY
What matters most
- SpaceX beat Q2 expectations with a loss of $0.09 per share on $7.81 billion in revenue.
- SPCX priced its IPO at $135, reached an all-time high of $229.85, and later fell to an all-time low of $104.83.
- The stock remains below its IPO price and has not confirmed that a durable bottom is in place.
- Up to approximately 911.5 million shares become eligible for trading on August 6.
- Another scheduled tranche of roughly 455.8 million shares may become eligible around August 20.
- The market is now focused on higher-than-expected AI spending, profitability, the August 6 lockup, and whether buyers can absorb additional supply.
- Dagger Trading Take: The earnings beat improved the fundamental story, but the chart still needs confirmation.
Quick Facts
SPCX at a glance
Why this week matters
SpaceX is entering its most important week since going public. The company reports second-quarter results after the market closes on August 4, followed by a management webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Two trading days later, the first major IPO lockup tranche becomes eligible for sale. Earnings can change expectations. A lockup can change supply. With both events arriving within days of each other, the first move may not be the final move.
The price story
SPCX rose from its $135 IPO price to an all-time high of $229.85 on June 15 before reversing sharply. It later declined to an all-time low of $104.83 on August 3.
That is a drop of roughly 54% from the high to the low. The decline below the IPO price shows that the market is still working through valuation, supply, spending, and execution concerns.
Lockup explained
Up to approximately 911.5 million Class A shares are expected to become eligible on August 6. Another roughly 455.8 million-share tranche may follow around August 20.
The market does not need every eligible share to be sold for the unlock to matter. Even partial selling can pressure the stock if demand is not strong enough to absorb it.
A separate price-based early release required SPCX to trade at least 30% above its $135 IPO price ($175.50) for the specified period. With shares far below that threshold, that accelerated release condition appears unlikely to be met.
Why Elon Musk matters
Elon Musk is SpaceX's founder, chief executive, controlling shareholder, and the person most closely associated with its long-term vision. His comments may influence sentiment as much as the reported numbers.
Investors will listen for updates on Starlink, Starship, orbital infrastructure, AI initiatives, capital spending, government and commercial demand, and the path toward sustainable profitability.
Musk's own holdings are generally subject to longer restrictions and are not the main focus of the near-term August unlocks. The first scheduled tranches primarily affect employees, early investors, and other restricted holders.
What Wall Street is watching
Bull case
- Starlink continues to grow its recurring-revenue base and improve margins.
- SpaceX maintains launch leadership and expands government and commercial demand.
- Starship progress improves long-term launch economics.
- Management provides credible guidance and demonstrates control over spending.
- The market absorbs the unlock supply better than feared.
Bear case
- Capital spending and cash burn remain higher than investors expected.
- Starlink growth slows or margins disappoint.
- Starship or other major projects face further delays.
- Guidance creates more uncertainty instead of reducing it.
- Lockup-related selling overwhelms demand and pushes the stock to new lows.
What would count as confirmation?
- A post-earnings rally that survives the conference call and the next regular session.
- SPCX holding up after the August 6 unlock becomes effective.
- Reduced selling volume and fewer heavy distribution days.
- A series of higher lows rather than one isolated bounce.
- Reclaiming the $135 IPO level and holding it as support.
- Constructive action after the later August tranche.
What would keep risk elevated?
- An earnings spike that quickly fails.
- Heavy-volume selling after the lockup expiration.
- Continued lower highs and lower lows.
- Weak guidance or unexpectedly high spending.
- Failure to reclaim and hold the IPO price.
Dagger Trading Take
Patience is a position
SpaceX may become one of the most important public companies in the market, but a great company and a great stock are not always the same thing at the same time.
SPCX has already fallen sharply, yet price alone does not prove the bottom is in. Earnings can change expectations, while the lockups can change supply. Guessing the exact low before both catalysts are absorbed adds unnecessary risk.
Let the company report. Let management speak. Let the market absorb the first unlockโand remember that another tranche may follow later in August. Then judge the stock by what it does, not by what anyone hopes it will do.
Wait for confirmation, not assumption.
Sources
- SpaceX Investor Relations โ earnings date and webcast
- SEC โ SpaceX IPO filing
- Reuters โ earnings themes and AI spending
- Business Insider โ earnings preview and lockup risk
- Morningstar โ staged lockup schedule
- Associated Press โ questions facing Musk
ATH and ATL values are based on Dagger Trading's Thinkorswim chart data. This article is educational and informational only and is not financial advice.
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