Week Ahead: August 17-21, 2026

30-Second Setup

What matters this week

The broader market enters the week near recent highs, with the larger SPY and QQQ trends still constructive.
Minutes from the Fed's July meeting will be released Wednesday and could provide fresh clues about where interest rates may be headed.
Major retail earnings from Home Depot, Lowe's, Target and Walmart will offer a fresh read on the consumer.
NVDA remains strong on the daily chart, but a shorter-term bearish pattern makes nearby support and resistance important.
SPCX faces another scheduled lockup expiration on August 20. Some previously restricted shares will become eligible to be sold, which could make the stock more volatile.
Dagger Trading focus: Know the important price levels, watch whether buyers or sellers are gaining strength, and wait for the market to confirm the move.

Market Setup: SPY

SPY enters the week in a strong larger uptrend and close to recent highs. That keeps the bigger picture constructive, but it also means traders should be careful about chasing strength directly into resistance.

Key Resistance$779.37If SPY moves above this level, stays above it, and buyers remain strong, the uptrend remains in control.

Near-Term Pivot$776.90If SPY moves back above this level and then holds it as support, another push higher becomes more likely.

Key Support$775.49If SPY falls below this level and selling pressure increases, the risk of a short-term pullback rises.

Next Area Below~$772The next area to watch if $775.49 fails and sellers gain momentum.

SPY takeaway: The larger trend remains bullish. The question this week is whether buyers can continue defending support while pushing through the recent highs.

QQQ: Bullish Trend, Looking for Confirmation

QQQ also remains in a strong longer-term uptrend after recovering from its recent pullback. The immediate setup is straightforward: buyers need to prove they can clear resistance, while sellers need to break support before the technical picture meaningfully weakens.

Key Resistance$734.07If QQQ moves above this area, holds it, and buyers remain in control, further upside becomes more likely.

Key Support$728.60If QQQ falls below this area and selling pressure increases, the risk of another pullback rises.

Stocks on the Radar

NVDAThe longer-term trend remains bullish, but a developing bearish pattern over the past several trading sessions deserves attention. Watch $225.58 support and $226.80 resistance. A move through either level becomes more meaningful when buying or selling pressure supports the move.

SPCXSPCX has recovered sharply from its August low and buying strength has improved. Near-term support sits around $134, while $152.59 is an important resistance area. On August 20, another group of previously restricted shares is scheduled to become eligible for sale.

SPCX: August 20 Lockup in Focus

On August 6, roughly 911.5 million previously restricted SPCX shares became eligible to be sold. Despite that potential increase in available shares, buyers stepped in and the stock avoided the sharp selloff many expected. The next scheduled lockup expiration arrives on August 20, when roughly 319 million additional shares are expected to become eligible for sale.

That does not mean 319 million shares will automatically be sold on August 20. It simply means the owners of those shares may be allowed to sell them. What matters most for traders is whether meaningful selling actually appears and how the stock reacts if it does.

For this week, the technical roadmap stays simple: holding around $134 keeps the recent recovery intact, while a push through $152.59 with strong momentum would improve the bullish setup. A breakdown through support would raise the risk that the recent recovery is losing strength.

Economic & Fed Calendar

This is not the heaviest macro week, but several events can still move rates and index momentum.

Date	Event	Why Traders Care
Mon. Aug. 17	Empire State Manufacturing	Early read on regional manufacturing conditions.
Tue. Aug. 18	Housing Starts; Import/Export Prices; Industrial Production	These reports offer a look at homebuilding, price pressures from imported goods, and the strength of U.S. factory activity.
Wed. Aug. 19	FOMC Minutes — 2:00 PM ET	Minutes from the Fed's July meeting are released at 2:00 PM ET. Traders will look for clues about inflation, the economy and where interest rates may be headed.
Thu. Aug. 20	Initial Jobless Claims; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing	Jobless claims show how many people recently filed for unemployment benefits, while the Philadelphia Fed report provides a read on manufacturing activity.
Fri. Aug. 21	S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs	These surveys provide a quick look at whether U.S. manufacturing and service businesses are expanding or slowing.

Earnings to Watch

Retail takes center stage this week. Rather than treating these reports as isolated stock events, traders can use them as a read on consumer spending and the health of the broader economy.

Tuesday — Home Depot (HD)Home improvement demand and housing-related spending.

Wednesday — Lowe's (LOW) & Target (TGT)Housing trends plus a broader read on discretionary consumer demand.

Thursday — Walmart (WMT)One of the week's most important reads on the U.S. consumer, pricing and spending behavior.

Other reportsAnalog Devices, Deere, Ross Stores and other companies can add sector-specific volatility during the week.

Dagger Trading Take

Don't predict the week. Prepare for it.

SPY and QQQ remain in constructive larger trends, but both are trading close enough to important levels that confirmation matters. NVDA is showing short-term caution inside a stronger daily trend, while SPCX has a known supply catalyst approaching on August 20.

The goal isn't to decide Sunday night whether the market will be green or red by Friday. Know the important price levels and upcoming events, watch whether buyers or sellers are gaining strength, and let the market confirm the next move.

🗡️ Wait for confirmation, not assumption.

Sources

Technical levels are based on Dagger Trading's Thinkorswim chart review on August 16, 2026. Content is educational and informational only and is not financial advice.